Black Friday sales have extended beyond the traditional single-day time frame, with retailers like Amazon, Target, and Walmart offering deals weeks in advance. Given the holiday shopping season has continued to elongate over the years and is already underway, understanding the latest on consumer behavior, economic impacts, and calendar logistics can help you win the season.

Black Friday in the context of holiday: Statistics and predictions that need your attention

  • The holiday shopping season keeps pushing earlier into Q3, blurring the lines of each event into a heavily promo-driven period: A portion of holiday shoppers (11%) start as early as July, and 35% start shopping in October. Retailers are also contributing to the holiday creep, looking to move inventory that didn’t sell last year, while others are doing so to capture sales early in the season
  • Black Friday sales are starting to see competition from other holiday sale events: Consumers spent as much in the three days post-Cyber Monday as they spent on Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined
  • Holiday shoppers want to learn about deals as they shop the usual gifting categories, including apparel, games and toys, and electronics: They want to learn about deals through several sources, with the number one being ads (64%) followed by social media (46%), marketing emails from brands (46%) and news articles and gift guides (42%). Shoppers are deliberate about seeking out value given shopping-related searches for “deals” grew 2300% the week of Black Friday and Cyber Week
  • Inflation will have an impact on shopping behaviors despite a strong sales forecast: To save money, 77% of consumers say they still plan to tighten their shopping budget while others plan to shop for deals and sales (48%), limit the people they buy gifts for (41%) and shop more online to save on gas (32%)

Given these factors, here’s how you can evaluate and adjust your current Black Friday approach to increase sales and effectiveness during the holiday season:

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1) Take a consumer-first approach to the season

Consumers move through the holiday season with different mindsets. From now until October they will be deliberate in their research, but as the season progresses, consumers become more deal-oriented and determined, especially during Black Friday. Be there in moments of discovery ahead of the Black Friday with a full funnel approach that draws on appropriate purchase-funnel stage creative variation and channel strategy. Scaling reach with segmented audience personas and running optimized targeting for new prospects can work together to drive demand and capture.

Most consumers take an omnichannel shopping approach to holiday shopping, alternating between shopping online and in-store. Consumers don’t view your website and store in a silo, it is (or should be) a fluid experience of your brand at each instance to them. Those that shop your brand across more than one channel are more engaged with you, and therefore more valuable, spending 2.5x more than single channel shoppers. Research the paths that your new and returning visitors take and plan your channel strategy around a multi-touch experience.

2) Align budgets with key periods and remain agile

The shopping season has already started, which signals that consumers are willing to spend now and aren’t necessarily waiting to see if prices drop further. That said, an early start could also eat into Q4 sales. Given this dynamic, it is important to consider whether you will frontload budgets or pace evenly with an agile pivot to investments when indicators suggest there is more sales demand available. Given 40% of shoppers are “always on” to find the ultimate gift, and 80% of searches happen Sept through the end of the year (without factoring in Cyber week), you can review historical sales trends along with your promo calendar to plan budget pacing accordingly.

Keep in mind that even though the season has stretched even longer, consumers are still constrained with finite dollars, which means you need to pace marketing investments wisely and place any dollar spikes that support your acquisition strategy without sacrificing too much on brand awareness after the season.

3) Boost your consumer engagement and retention strategies

Leverage a combination of strategies to attract new consumers and re-engage past consumers with your brand.

  • Personalization is key to re-engaging existing customers that are currently interacting with your brand and products
  • Re-engaging existing customers that haven’t made a purchase over a certain period of time (i.e. 3+ months) can drive sales at a lower cost per conversion compared to a new customer
  • Black Friday gives you an opportunity to acquire new customers for your business given the massive volume of shoppers. Determine the right customer acquisition cost (CAC) that is acceptable to your business and target a lower threshold if possible. In terms of incentives, leverage key attributes that enable a delightful consumer experience, such as first-time purchase discounts, fast and free shipping, or a free gift with purchase to bring in new customers to the brand
  • Incentivize earlier purchases with limited time offers that are less promo driven but still offer value and exclusivity
4) Upgrade your content approach

Creative format, messaging, and imagery is foundationally important in winning Black Friday. People are deal-shopping for an extended amount of time across the entire season, which can result in “promotion fatigue.” Therefore, it is important to simplify the decision-making process by presenting reasons-to-believe to enable and attract the best consumers:

  • A large majority of shoppers say free shipping and returns are the most important incentive when it comes to shopping online.
  • Other popular online shopping incentives include fast shipping (46%), flexible and extended return policies (36%), “buy now, pay later” (20%) and “buy online, pick up in-store” (12%).

Additionally, you not only have to break through the noise with high impact creative and formats, but also know when to integrate seamlessly into all consumer touchpoints. Consider how an influencer strategy can add authenticity to your plan by exploring how creators can position your brand as a trusted source of holiday shopping inspiration. According to a new holiday shopper study, there has been a 32% increase in millennial respondents choosing creators as their primary source of purchase advice for the holidays. Most respondents make purchases from creators overall, including 73% of Gen Z, 69% of millennials and 57% of the general population. 9 in 10 respondents who rely on creators have purchased a gift based on their recommendations.

5) Maximize the digital opportunity

Finally, consider if Black Friday is the right time to spend for your budget, your target, your brand, and the full potential of the fiscal year. Will you be able to spend efficiently to breakthrough during a highly competitive and premium cost timeframe? Will placing big bets align with your business goals in the context of the rest of the retail calendar? Do you have the resources to double-down on the right messaging and campaign strategy to support the tactical sophistication of your entire plan?

If you are a smaller brand building to become more established, consider your full budget for the year and ensure you are not sacrificing other strategies that are more efficient or effective.

Weigh the pros and cons before investing in Black Friday

Black Friday is about scoring the best deal for consumers, but an extended shopping season with inflation may mean consumers are willing to settle for deals earlier in the season. Brands and retailers can position their Black Friday strategies in line with their business goals as well as consumer shopping goals and in doing so, win across the entire holiday season. Once you have your strategies in place, set up a measurement plan and capture insights that you can apply to other areas of your business or like-for-like sales periods throughout the year.